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New Mexico State University

December 2009

Talking Points

 

Christopher A. Erickson and James Libbin


December, 2009


 

Current Conditions in Southern New Mexico

 

·         New revenue forecasts, released in anticipation of the January regular legislative session, indicate that the tax revenues are down 20 percent from their peak in FY08. 

·         The Budget Balancing Task Force, appointed by Governor Richardson, has been holding a series of meetings around the state seeking ideas on how to deal with the budget crisis. Certainly more cuts will be on the table, but the fact is that it will be difficult to balance the budget without tax increases.

·         Among the revenue enhancement being discussed by the BB Task Force include increases in the top income tax rate, a 1 percent surcharge on high income tax payers, repeal of all or part of the gross receipt tax deduction for food, as well as other ideas. Eighteen options in all are being considered.

·         Turning to labor markets. The news continues to tell the same story as last month. Things are very bad, but not as bad as the previous month. This coupled with signs of recovery in the national economy brings hope that recovery may not be too far off.

·         Statewide jobs were lost at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in October based on the establishment survey, a slight improvement over last month’s revised 3.6 percent.

·         Only four sectors statewide saw growth—information services (up 11.0 percent compared to 12-months previous), health and education (2.9 percent), and government (1.0 percent). Leisure and hospitality was flat.

·         Employment in three sectors fell by more than 9 percent—construction (down 14.0 compared to 12-months previous), manufacturing (-13.1 percent), and transportation and warehousing (-9.4 percent).

·         Job loss in Las Cruces during the last 12 months, based on the October establishment survey, was -2.6 percent, typing last month’s number.

·         Only two sectors saw employment growth—health services and education (up 1.8 percent compared to 12 months ago) and government (0.4 percent). Financial services saw zero growth.

·         Four sectors in Las Cruces saw a loss in jobs of more than 10 percent—natural resource and construction (down 12.5 percent compared to 12 months ago), manufacturing (-12.1 percent), transportation and warehousing (-11.1 percent), and information (-10.0 percent).

·         Sapphire Energy, an algae-based biofuel manufacturer, will receive more than $104 million as part of a Recovery Act grant and a loan guarantee. 750 direct and indirect jobs are expected to be created.

·         The Dona Ana County commission has approved designation of Johnson Plate and Tower Fabrication, a wind tower manufacturer, as a project under the economic development ordinance. The move makes Johnson eligible for state funding. The company wants to build a 84,000 square foot facility in Santa Teresa.


 

 

Current Economic Conditions in New Mexico

Summary Table

Labor Markets

Employment

Oct-09

Oct-08

% change

Las Cruces

84,456

86,402

-2.3%

Statewide

887,722

925,110

-4.0%

U.S. data

(in thousands)

139,088

145,543

-4.4%

Unemployment Rate

Oct-09

Oct-08

Difference

Las Cruces

7.2%

4.4%

2.8%

Statewide

7.5%

4.1%

3.4%

U.S. data

9.5%

6.1%

3.4%

Payroll Employment by Industry

New Mexico

Oct-09

Oct-08

% change

Total Nonagricultural Employment

822,400

850,200

-3.3%

Goods Producing

98,300

112,600

-12.7%

Service Producing

724,100

737,600

-1.8%

Natural Resources and Mining

19,700

21,600

-8.8%

Construction

48,000

55,800

-14.0%

Manufacturing

30,600

35,200

-13.1%

Wholesale

22,300

23,800

-6.3%

Retail

89,300

95,800

-6.8%

Trans., Warehousing and Utilities

22,200

24,500

-9.4%

Information

18,200

16,400

11.0%

Financial Activities

32,400

34,600

-6.4%

Business Services

100,700

108,700

-7.4%

Education and Health Services

120,500

117,100

2.9%

Leisure and Hospitality

85,500

85,500

0.0%

Other Services

29,800

30,000

-0.7%

Government

203,200

201,200

1.0%

Las Cruces

Oct-09

Oct-08

% change

Total Nonagricultural Employment

68,400

70,200

-2.6%

Goods Producing

6,400

7,300

-12.3%

Service Producing

62,000

62,900

-1.4%

Natural Res., Mining, and Constr.

3,500

4,000

-12.5%

Manufacturing

2,900

3,300

-12.1%

Wholesale

1,200

1,300

-7.7%

Retail

6,800

7,200

-5.6%

Trans., Warehousing, and Utilities

1,600

1,800

-11.1%

Information

900

1,000

-10.0%

Financial Activity

2,600

2,600

0.0%

Business Services

6,300

6,500

-3.1%

Education and Health Services

11,500

11,300

1.8%

Leisure and Hospitality

7,000

7,100

-1.4%

Other Services

1,700

1,800

-5.6%

Government

22,400

22,300

0.4%

Source: New Mexico Department of Workforce Solutions

Gross Receipts Tax Revenue before Medical Deduction

Sep-09

Sep-08

% change

Dona Ana County

$18,421,507

$18,208,792

1.2%

New Mexico

$259,723,771

$301,186,051

-13.8%

3rd Quarter 2009

3rd Quarter 2008

% change

Dona Ana

$55,946,567

$52,995,696

5.6%

New Mexico

$770,152,679

$859,630,634

-10.4%

Source: New Mexico Department of Taxation and Revenue

Real Estate

Las Cruces Building Permits (All Sources)

Jan-Oct 09

Jan-Oct 08

% change

Permits

2,283

2,570

-11.2%

Valuation

$159,217,344

$163,656,502

-2.7%

Source: City of Las Cruces

Housing Price Index

 3rd Quarter 2009

 3rd Quarter 2008

% change

Las Cruces

185.23

190.53

-2.8%

New Mexico

314.51

326.03

-3.5%

United States

349.97

364.84

-4.1%

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency_ Use all transactions Index

Energy Prices

Oct-09

Oct-08

% change

Oil ( $/barrel )

$75.82

$76.65

-1.1%

Gasoline(dollars per million BTU)

$4.02

$6.73

-40.3%

Source: Wall Street Journal