|
Talking Points |
|
Christopher A. Erickson and James Libbin |
|
Current
Conditions in Southern New Mexico
·
New revenue forecasts, released in anticipation of the January
regular legislative session, indicate that the tax revenues are down 20 percent
from their peak in FY08.
·
The Budget Balancing Task Force, appointed by Governor Richardson,
has been holding a series of meetings around the state seeking ideas on how to
deal with the budget crisis. Certainly more cuts will be on the table, but the
fact is that it will be difficult to balance the budget without tax increases.
·
Among the revenue enhancement being discussed by the BB Task Force
include increases in the top income tax rate, a 1 percent surcharge on high
income tax payers, repeal of all or part of the gross receipt tax deduction for
food, as well as other ideas. Eighteen options in all are being considered.
·
Turning to labor markets. The news continues to tell the same
story as last month. Things are very bad, but not as bad as the previous month.
This coupled with signs of recovery in the national economy brings hope that
recovery may not be too far off.
·
Statewide jobs were lost at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in
October based on the establishment survey, a slight improvement over last
month’s revised 3.6 percent.
·
Only four sectors statewide saw growth—information services (up 11.0
percent compared to 12-months previous), health and education (2.9 percent),
and government (1.0 percent). Leisure and hospitality was flat.
·
Employment in three sectors fell by more than 9
percent—construction (down 14.0 compared to 12-months previous), manufacturing
(-13.1 percent), and transportation and warehousing (-9.4 percent).
·
Job
loss in Las Cruces during the last 12 months, based on the October
establishment survey, was -2.6 percent, typing last month’s number.
·
Only two sectors saw employment growth—health services and
education (up 1.8 percent compared to 12 months ago) and government (0.4
percent). Financial services saw zero growth.
·
Four sectors in Las Cruces saw a loss in jobs of more than 10
percent—natural resource and construction (down 12.5 percent compared to 12 months
ago), manufacturing (-12.1 percent), transportation and warehousing (-11.1
percent), and information (-10.0 percent).
·
Sapphire Energy, an algae-based biofuel
manufacturer, will receive more than $104 million as part of a Recovery Act
grant and a loan guarantee. 750 direct and indirect jobs are expected to be
created.
· The Dona Ana County commission has approved designation of Johnson Plate and Tower Fabrication, a wind tower manufacturer, as a project under the economic development ordinance. The move makes Johnson eligible for state funding. The company wants to build a 84,000 square foot facility in Santa Teresa.
|
Current
Economic Conditions in New Mexico |
|||||||
|
Summary
Table |
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|
Labor Markets |
|||||||
|
Employment |
Oct-09 |
Oct-08 |
%
change |
||||
|
Las Cruces |
84,456 |
86,402 |
-2.3% |
||||
|
Statewide |
887,722 |
925,110 |
-4.0% |
||||
|
U.S. data |
(in thousands) |
139,088 |
145,543 |
-4.4% |
|||
|
Unemployment Rate |
Oct-09 |
Oct-08 |
Difference |
||||
|
Las Cruces |
7.2% |
4.4% |
2.8% |
||||
|
Statewide |
7.5% |
4.1% |
3.4% |
||||
|
U.S. data |
9.5% |
6.1% |
3.4% |
||||
|
Payroll Employment by Industry |
|||||||
|
New Mexico |
Oct-09 |
Oct-08 |
%
change |
||||
|
Total Nonagricultural Employment |
822,400 |
850,200 |
-3.3% |
||||
|
Goods Producing |
98,300 |
112,600 |
-12.7% |
||||
|
Service Producing |
724,100 |
737,600 |
-1.8% |
||||
|
Natural Resources and Mining |
19,700 |
21,600 |
-8.8% |
||||
|
Construction |
48,000 |
55,800 |
-14.0% |
||||
|
Manufacturing |
30,600 |
35,200 |
-13.1% |
||||
|
Wholesale |
22,300 |
23,800 |
-6.3% |
||||
|
Retail |
89,300 |
95,800 |
-6.8% |
||||
|
Trans., Warehousing and Utilities |
22,200 |
24,500 |
-9.4% |
||||
|
Information |
18,200 |
16,400 |
11.0% |
||||
|
Financial Activities |
32,400 |
34,600 |
-6.4% |
||||
|
Business Services |
100,700 |
108,700 |
-7.4% |
||||
|
Education and Health Services |
120,500 |
117,100 |
2.9% |
||||
|
Leisure and Hospitality |
85,500 |
85,500 |
0.0% |
||||
|
Other Services |
29,800 |
30,000 |
-0.7% |
||||
|
Government |
203,200 |
201,200 |
1.0% |
||||
|
Las Cruces |
Oct-09 |
Oct-08 |
%
change |
||||
|
Total Nonagricultural Employment |
68,400 |
70,200 |
-2.6% |
||||
|
Goods Producing |
6,400 |
7,300 |
-12.3% |
||||
|
Service Producing |
62,000 |
62,900 |
-1.4% |
||||
|
Natural Res., Mining, and Constr. |
3,500 |
4,000 |
-12.5% |
||||
|
Manufacturing |
2,900 |
3,300 |
-12.1% |
||||
|
Wholesale |
1,200 |
1,300 |
-7.7% |
||||
|
Retail |
6,800 |
7,200 |
-5.6% |
||||
|
Trans., Warehousing, and Utilities |
1,600 |
1,800 |
-11.1% |
||||
|
Information |
900 |
1,000 |
-10.0% |
||||
|
Financial Activity |
2,600 |
2,600 |
0.0% |
||||
|
Business Services |
6,300 |
6,500 |
-3.1% |
||||
|
Education and Health Services |
11,500 |
11,300 |
1.8% |
||||
|
Leisure and Hospitality |
7,000 |
7,100 |
-1.4% |
||||
|
Other Services |
1,700 |
1,800 |
-5.6% |
||||
|
Government |
22,400 |
22,300 |
0.4% |
||||
|
Source: New Mexico Department of
Workforce Solutions |
|||||||
|
Gross Receipts Tax Revenue before
Medical Deduction |
|||||||
|
Sep-09 |
Sep-08 |
%
change |
|||||
|
Dona Ana County |
$18,421,507
|
$18,208,792
|
1.2% |
||||
|
New Mexico |
$259,723,771
|
$301,186,051
|
-13.8% |
||||
|
3rd Quarter 2009 |
3rd Quarter 2008 |
%
change |
|||||
|
Dona Ana |
$55,946,567 |
$52,995,696 |
5.6% |
||||
|
New Mexico |
$770,152,679 |
$859,630,634 |
-10.4% |
||||
|
Source: New Mexico Department of
Taxation and Revenue |
|||||||
|
Real Estate |
|||||||
|
Las Cruces Building Permits (All
Sources) |
Jan-Oct
09 |
Jan-Oct
08 |
%
change |
||||
|
Permits |
2,283 |
2,570 |
-11.2% |
||||
|
Valuation |
$159,217,344 |
$163,656,502 |
-2.7% |
||||
|
Source: City of Las Cruces |
|||||||
|
Housing Price Index |
3rd Quarter 2009 |
3rd Quarter 2008 |
%
change |
||||
|
Las Cruces |
185.23 |
190.53 |
-2.8% |
||||
|
New Mexico |
314.51 |
326.03 |
-3.5% |
||||
|
United States |
349.97 |
364.84 |
-4.1% |
||||
|
Source: Federal Housing Finance
Agency_ Use all transactions Index |
|||||||
|
Energy Prices |
Oct-09 |
Oct-08 |
%
change |
||||
|
Oil ( $/barrel ) |
$75.82 |
$76.65 |
-1.1% |
||||
|
Gasoline(dollars per million BTU) |
$4.02 |
$6.73 |
-40.3% |
||||
|
Source: Wall Street Journal |
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