Articles

A Dynamic Model of Insurgency and the War in Iraq

The U.S.-led coalition that invaded Iraq in 2003 faced an Iraqi army of 400,000 troops, twice its own size yet met surprising little resistance in the early days of the war: The Ba\'ath leaders and their party officials had disappeared, just as the army and the Republican Guard had disappeared. The quick collapse of the Iraqi regime seemed to bode well for U.S. interests. Yet within a short period of time, the situation in Iraq had deteriorated. To understand these developments, we develop a dynamic model of insurgency. The results give insight into the interactions between the U.S.-led coalition and Iraq insurgents. We conclude that long term troop deployment may be a necessity if stability is to be maintained in Iraq.
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Las Cruces and the National Recession: We are better off than most

Las Cruces will likely miss most of the current national recession. We benefit from a relatively large government sector that insulates us from fluctuations in economic activity, and at the same time, we have a relatively small manufacturing sector. (Manufacturing is among the most business cycle sensitive sectors.) Here in southern New Mexico, we also benefit from troop redeployments to Fort Bliss and WSMR, which together are expected to see a surge of 40,000 troops, some of whom have already deployed to our area.
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Talking Points

The pattern of the last few months continues. New Mexico continues to see mild job loss while Las Cruces continues to see slow growth. Unemployment rates are up sharply over a year ago, but less sharply than the national number. All and all, our state is weathering the national recession better than average while Las Cruces continues to be bypassed by the national recession.
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