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Talking Points |
|
Chris A. Erickson and
James Libbon |
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·
The New Mexico economy continues in a mild recession. Employment
(household survey) fell by a barely measurable .8 percent in January compared
to January 2008. Payrolls (establishment survey) fell 1.0 percent.
·
Statewide unemployment was up sharply by 2.0 percent compared to
twelve months previously to 5.2 percent, which is troubling. Nationally,
unemployment increased 3.1 percent. So relative to the national economy, New
Mexico is doing OK, but relative to ourselves, things
are deteriorating.
·
The Las Cruces MSA continues to buck the trend both national and
statewide trend by avoiding out right recession. But growth is very slow and
not likely to recover in the near future.
·
The city saw a 0.6 percent increase in payroll employment in January
compared to twelve months previous. The unemployment rate was increased sharply,
up 1.9 percent to 5.6 percent.
·
Las Cruces real estate market, which has done better than
nationally, is starting to show more weakness. Of course, volume has been down
for more than a year, but now prices seem to be falling off some now. The
Housing Price Index is down 3.3 percent in the third quarter compared to four
quarters previously, more than statewide for the first time during this
downturn, but still less than the national number. Statewide real estate prices
were down 1.9 percent in the third quarter, nationally down 4.5 percent.
·
Foreclosures in the state were down in February by 25 percent
from February of last year. The state ranked 38th among the 50
states for foreclosures.
·
The weakest sectors statewide were construction, down 9.6
percent in January compared to January 2008, manufacturing (down 5.1 percent), and
transportation and warehousing (down 4.7 percent). All three sectors are
traditionally sensitive to national recessions.
·
Strong sectors in January statewide were education and health
services (up 4.0 percent compared to a year earlier), natural resources and
mining (up 3.6 percent), and government (up 1.1 percent).
·
Weak sectors in Las Cruces were natural resources and mining
(down 9.3 percent in January compared to 12 months previous), transportation
and warehousing (down 5.3 percent.), and retailing (down 4.1 percent).
·
Strong
sectors in Las Cruces were finance (up 8.3 percent in December compared to a
year earlier), business services (up 6.6 percent), and other services (up 5.9
percent).
·
Stargate: Universe is shooting an episode in Alamogordo. It
is expected that 75 locals will be hired. New Mexico has a generous film
incentives program. Production companies can, for example, deduct 25 percent of
the value of taxable expenditures in New Mexico, including expenditures on film
crews.
·
The
U.S. Forest Service plans to release $5 million in federal stimulus funding for
two projects in New Mexico. More than $3.6 million will go toward hazardous
fuels reduction on the Lincoln forest in southern New Mexico creating about 40
jobs. On the Santa Fe forest, more than $1 million will create about 12 jobs.
·
Cummins
Natural Gas Engine in Clovis has laid off 16 workers 39 employees continue
working at Cummins.
Current
Economic Conditions in New Mexico |
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Summary Table |
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Labor Markets |
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Employment |
|
Jan-09 |
Jan-08 |
% change |
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|
|
|
|
82,809 |
82,653 |
0.2% |
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|
|
Statewide |
|
897,970 |
905,561 |
-0.8% |
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|
|
|
(in thousands) |
|
140,436 |
144,607 |
-2.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
Unemployment Rate |
Jan-09 |
Jan-08 |
Difference |
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|
|
|
|
5.6% |
3.7% |
1.9% |
||
|
|
Statewide |
|
5.2% |
3.2% |
2.0% |
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|
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|
8.5% |
5.4% |
3.1% |
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Payroll Employment by
Industry |
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|
Jan-09 |
Jan-08 |
% change |
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|
|
|
Total Nonagricultural
Employment |
825,500 |
834,100 |
-1.0% |
||
|
|
|
Goods Producing |
105,300 |
112,000 |
-6.0% |
||
|
|
|
Service Producing |
720,200 |
722,100 |
-0.3% |
||
|
|
|
Natural Resources and
Mining |
20,400 |
19,800 |
3.0% |
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Construction |
|
51,500 |
57,000 |
-9.6% |
|
|
|
|
Manufacturing |
|
33,400 |
35,200 |
-5.1% |
|
|
|
|
Wholesale |
|
23,200 |
23,900 |
-2.9% |
|
|
|
|
Retail |
|
93,200 |
96,500 |
-3.4% |
|
|
|
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Trans., Warehousing
and Utilities |
24,200 |
25,400 |
-4.7% |
||
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|
Information |
|
15,400 |
15,600 |
-1.3% |
|
|
|
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Financial Activities |
34,000 |
34,700 |
-2.0% |
||
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|
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Business Services |
105,200 |
106,500 |
-1.2% |
||
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|
|
Education and Health
Services |
117,200 |
112,700 |
4.0% |
||
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|
|
Leisure and
Hospitality |
83,800 |
84,900 |
-1.3% |
||
|
|
|
Other Services |
28,600 |
28,700 |
-0.3% |
||
|
|
|
Government |
|
195,400 |
193,200 |
1.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan-09 |
Jan-08 |
% change |
||
|
|
|
Total Nonagricultural
Employment |
67,400 |
67,000 |
0.6% |
||
|
|
|
Goods Producing |
7,000 |
7,400 |
-5.4% |
||
|
|
|
Service Producing |
60,400 |
59,600 |
1.3% |
||
|
|
|
Natural Res., Mining,
and Constr. |
3,900 |
4,300 |
-9.3% |
||
|
|
|
Manufacturing |
|
3,100 |
3,100 |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
Wholesale |
|
1,300 |
1,300 |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
Retail |
|
7,000 |
7,300 |
-4.1% |
|
|
|
|
Trans., Warehousing,
and Utilities |
1,800 |
1,900 |
-5.3% |
||
|
|
|
Information |
|
1,000 |
1,000 |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
Financial Activity |
2,600 |
2,400 |
8.3% |
||
|
|
|
Business Services |
6,500 |
6,100 |
6.6% |
||
|
|
|
Education and Health
Services |
11,300 |
10,800 |
4.6% |
||
|
|
|
Leisure and
Hospitality |
7,000 |
7,200 |
-2.8% |
||
|
|
|
Other Services |
1,800 |
1,700 |
5.9% |
||
|
|
|
Government |
|
20,100 |
19,900 |
1.0% |
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Source: New Mexico
Department of Labor |
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Current
Economic Conditions in |
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|
Agriculture |
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Dairy Production |
|
Jan-09 |
Jan-08 |
% change |
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|
|
Cow Numbers |
(thousand head) |
334 |
336 |
-0.6% |
||
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|
Milk Production |
(Million Pounds) |
673 |
638 |
5.5% |
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Prices |
|
|
|
Feb-09 |
Feb-08 |
% change |
|
|
|
Milk Price |
(Cwt.) |
$11.20 |
$20.00 |
-44.0% |
||
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Hay |
(ton) |
$191.00 |
$158.00 |
20.9% |
||
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Alfalfa |
(ton) |
$194.00 |
$161.00 |
20.5% |
||
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Source: New Mexico
Department of Agriculture |
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Gross Receipts Tax Revenue before
Medical Deduction |
|||||||
|
|
|
|
Sep-08 |
Sep-07 |
% change |
||
|
|
|
|
$18,208,792 |
$17,157,632 |
6.1% |
||
|
|
|
|
$301,186,051 |
$283,579,028 |
6.2% |
||
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|
|
|
|
|
3rd Quarter 2008 |
3rd Quarter 2007 |
% of change |
|
|
Dona Ana |
|
$52,995,696 |
$55,507,029 |
-4.5% |
||
|
|
|
|
$859,630,634 |
$835,260,537 |
2.9% |
||
|
Source: New Mexico
Department of Taxation and Revenue |
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Real Estate |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Jan-Feb 09 |
Jan-Feb 08 |
% change |
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|
Permits |
|
|
388 |
468 |
-17.1% |
|
|
|
Valuation |
|
$43,255,846 |
$45,393,593 |
-4.7% |
||
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Source: City of |
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Housing Price Index |
|
4th Quarter 2008 |
4th Quarter 2007 |
% change |
|||
|
|
|
|
191.39 |
197.89 |
-3.3% |
||
|
|
|
|
334.03 |
340.62 |
-1.9% |
||
|
|
|
|
368.28 |
385.5 |
-4.5% |
||
|
Source: Office of
Federal Housing |
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Energy Prices |
|
Feb-09 |
Feb-08 |
% change |
|||
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|
Oil ( $/barrel ) |
|
39.16 |
95.35 |
-58.9% |
||
|
|
Nature Gas (dollars
per million BTU) |
4.52 |
8.55 |
-47.1% |
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Prepared by
Christopher A. Erickson, and James Libbin |
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