Skip navigation.
New Mexico State University


Talking Points

 

Chris A. Erickson and James Libbon


March, 2009


·         The New Mexico economy continues in a mild recession. Employment (household survey) fell by a barely measurable .8 percent in January compared to January 2008. Payrolls (establishment survey) fell 1.0 percent.

·         Statewide unemployment was up sharply by 2.0 percent compared to twelve months previously to 5.2 percent, which is troubling. Nationally, unemployment increased 3.1 percent. So relative to the national economy, New Mexico is doing OK, but relative to ourselves, things are deteriorating.

·         The Las Cruces MSA continues to buck the trend both national and statewide trend by avoiding out right recession. But growth is very slow and not likely to recover in the near future.

·         The city saw a 0.6 percent increase in payroll employment in January compared to twelve months previous. The unemployment rate was increased sharply, up 1.9 percent to 5.6 percent.

·         Las Cruces real estate market, which has done better than nationally, is starting to show more weakness. Of course, volume has been down for more than a year, but now prices seem to be falling off some now. The Housing Price Index is down 3.3 percent in the third quarter compared to four quarters previously, more than statewide for the first time during this downturn, but still less than the national number. Statewide real estate prices were down 1.9 percent in the third quarter, nationally down 4.5 percent.

·         Foreclosures in the state were down in February by 25 percent from February of last year. The state ranked 38th among the 50 states for foreclosures.

·         The weakest sectors statewide were construction, down 9.6 percent in January compared to January 2008, manufacturing (down 5.1 percent), and transportation and warehousing (down 4.7 percent). All three sectors are traditionally sensitive to national recessions.

·         Strong sectors in January statewide were education and health services (up 4.0 percent compared to a year earlier), natural resources and mining (up 3.6 percent), and government (up 1.1 percent).

·         Weak sectors in Las Cruces were natural resources and mining (down 9.3 percent in January compared to 12 months previous), transportation and warehousing (down 5.3 percent.), and retailing (down 4.1 percent).

·         Strong sectors in Las Cruces were finance (up 8.3 percent in December compared to a year earlier), business services (up 6.6 percent), and other services (up 5.9 percent).

·         Stargate: Universe is shooting an episode in Alamogordo. It is expected that 75 locals will be hired. New Mexico has a generous film incentives program. Production companies can, for example, deduct 25 percent of the value of taxable expenditures in New Mexico, including expenditures on film crews.

·         The U.S. Forest Service plans to release $5 million in federal stimulus funding for two projects in New Mexico. More than $3.6 million will go toward hazardous fuels reduction on the Lincoln forest in southern New Mexico creating about 40 jobs. On the Santa Fe forest, more than $1 million will create about 12 jobs.

·         Cummins Natural Gas Engine in Clovis has laid off 16 workers 39 employees continue working at Cummins.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Current Economic Conditions in New Mexico

Summary Table

Labor Markets

 

 

 

Employment

 

Jan-09

Jan-08

% change

 

Las Cruces

 

82,809

82,653

0.2%

 

Statewide

 

897,970

905,561

-0.8%

 

U.S. data

(in thousands)

 

140,436

144,607

-2.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate

Jan-09

Jan-08

Difference

 

Las Cruces

 

5.6%

3.7%

1.9%

 

Statewide

 

5.2%

3.2%

2.0%

 

U.S. data

 

8.5%

5.4%

3.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Payroll Employment by Industry

 

 

 

 

New Mexico

 

Jan-09

Jan-08

% change

 

 

Total Nonagricultural Employment

825,500

834,100

-1.0%

 

 

Goods Producing

105,300

112,000

-6.0%

 

 

Service Producing

720,200

722,100

-0.3%

 

 

Natural Resources and Mining

20,400

19,800

3.0%

 

 

Construction

 

51,500

57,000

-9.6%

 

 

Manufacturing

 

33,400

35,200

-5.1%

 

 

Wholesale

 

23,200

23,900

-2.9%

 

 

Retail

 

93,200

96,500

-3.4%

 

 

Trans., Warehousing and Utilities

24,200

25,400

-4.7%

 

 

Information

 

15,400

15,600

-1.3%

 

 

Financial Activities

34,000

34,700

-2.0%

 

 

Business Services

105,200

106,500

-1.2%

 

 

Education and Health Services

117,200

112,700

4.0%

 

 

Leisure and Hospitality

83,800

84,900

-1.3%

 

 

Other Services

28,600

28,700

-0.3%

 

 

Government

 

195,400

193,200

1.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Las Cruces

 

Jan-09

Jan-08

% change

 

 

Total Nonagricultural Employment

67,400

67,000

0.6%

 

 

Goods Producing

7,000

7,400

-5.4%

 

 

Service Producing

60,400

59,600

1.3%

 

 

Natural Res., Mining, and Constr.

3,900

4,300

-9.3%

 

 

Manufacturing

 

3,100

3,100

0.0%

 

 

Wholesale

 

1,300

1,300

0.0%

 

 

Retail

 

7,000

7,300

-4.1%

 

 

Trans., Warehousing, and Utilities

1,800

1,900

-5.3%

 

 

Information

 

1,000

1,000

0.0%

 

 

Financial Activity

2,600

2,400

8.3%

 

 

Business Services

6,500

6,100

6.6%

 

 

Education and Health Services

11,300

10,800

4.6%

 

 

Leisure and Hospitality

7,000

7,200

-2.8%

 

 

Other Services

1,800

1,700

5.9%

 

 

Government

 

20,100

19,900

1.0%

Source: New Mexico Department of Labor

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Economic Conditions in New Mexico (Cont’)

Agriculture

 

 

 

 

Dairy Production

 

Jan-09

Jan-08

% change

 

Cow Numbers

(thousand head)

334

336

-0.6%

 

Milk Production

(Million Pounds)

673

638

5.5%

Prices

 

 

 

Feb-09

Feb-08

% change

 

Milk Price

(Cwt.)

$11.20

$20.00

-44.0%

 

Hay

(ton)

$191.00

$158.00

20.9%

 

Alfalfa

(ton)

$194.00

$161.00

20.5%

Source: New Mexico Department of Agriculture

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Receipts Tax Revenue before Medical Deduction

 

 

 

Sep-08

Sep-07

% change

 

Dona Ana County

 

$18,208,792

$17,157,632

6.1%

 

New Mexico

 

$301,186,051

$283,579,028

6.2%

 

 

 

 

 

3rd Quarter 2008

3rd Quarter 2007

% of change

 

Dona Ana

 

$52,995,696

$55,507,029

-4.5%

 

New Mexico

 

$859,630,634

$835,260,537

2.9%

Source: New Mexico Department of Taxation and Revenue

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Real Estate

 

 

 

 

Las Cruces Building Permits (All Sources)

Jan-Feb 09

Jan-Feb 08

% change

 

Permits

 

 

388

468

-17.1%

 

Valuation

 

$43,255,846

$45,393,593

-4.7%

Source: City of Las Cruces

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Housing Price Index

 

4th Quarter 2008

4th Quarter 2007

% change

 

Las Cruces

 

191.39

197.89

-3.3%

 

New Mexico

 

334.03

340.62

-1.9%

 

United States

 

368.28

385.5

-4.5%

Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Energy Prices

 

Feb-09

Feb-08

% change

 

Oil ( $/barrel )

 

39.16

95.35

-58.9%

 

Nature Gas (dollars per million BTU)

4.52

8.55

-47.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prepared by Christopher A. Erickson, and James Libbin