NM Business Outlook

November 2011

Talking Points

Christopher A. Erickson and James Libbinuthor(s)

November, 2011

By Christopher A. Erickson and James Libbin

· The New Mexico economy continues gain this month to stagnate, neither suffering from economic loses nor showing much in the way of gains. Instead employment changes are close to zero. Statewide employment in September, according to the household survey, decreased 0.3 percent compared to September 2010. Jobs as measured by the establishment survey increased 0.2 percent.

· Rapidly growing industries statewide are Natural Resources and Mining (up 9.1 percent compared to September 2010), Wholesale (7.3 percent), and Financial Services (5.8 percent).

· Statewide industries with the least growth were Construction (also down 9.6 percent compared to twelve months ago), Business Services (down 7.4 percent), and Information (down 1.4 percent).

· The mild recession that has plagued the Las Cruces economy continues. Las Cruces employment fell 0.1 percent according to the household survey and by 0.3 percent according to the establishment survey.

· The fastest growing industries in Las Cruces were Wholesale (up 8.3 percent compared to September 2010), Financial Services (up 4.3 percent) and Retailing (up 2.9 percent).

· Las Cruces industries showing the sharpest decline were Manufacturing (down 7.1 percent compared to twelve months previously), and Government (down -3.2 percent).

· Five Las Cruces industries—Natural Resources, Transportation, Information, Business Services, and Other Services—were all flat, experiencing no employment growth over the last twelve months.

· Las Cruces has lost 600 jobs in government over the last 12 months. Had government employment remained steady, the city would have seen overall growth. This illustrates the key role that state funding for public schools and NMSU plays in the local economy.

· New Mexico's financial outlook is weakening and there will be less money available for government programs and services in the upcoming budget year than previously expected. State officials have lowered projected revenue by $21.5 million in the current budget year and $123 million in the fiscal year that starts next July.

Current Economic Conditions in New Mexico
Summary Table
Labor Markets
Employment				Sep-11	Sep-10		% change
	Las Cruces			86,173	86,269		-0.1%
	Statewide			873,611	876,495		-0.3%
	U.S. data (in thousands)			140,502	139,715		0.6%

Unemployment Rate				Sep-11	Sep-10		Difference
	Las Cruces			6.2%	7.8%		-1.6%
	Statewide			6.4%	8.2%		-1.8%
	U.S. data			8.8%	9.2%		-0.4%

Payroll Employment by Industry
	New Mexico			Sep-11	Sep-10		% change
		Total Nonagricultural Employment		806,600	804,900		0.2%
		Goods Producing		90,400	93,100		-2.9%
		Service Producing		716,200	711,800		0.6%
		Natural Resources and Mining		20,400	18,700		9.1%
		Construction		40,300	44,600		-9.6%
		Manufacturing		29,700	29,800		-0.3%
		Wholesale		23,500	21,900		7.3%
		Retail		93,400	89,400		4.5%
		Trans., Warehousing and Utilities		22,000	21,700		1.4%
		Information		14,000	14,200		-1.4%
		Financial Activities		34,400	32,500		5.8%
		Business Services		93,100	100,500		-7.4%
		Education and Health Services		126,100	120,600		4.6%
		Leisure and Hospitality		85,400	85,000		0.5%
		Other Services		28,100	27,900		0.7%
		Government		196,200	198,100		-1.0%

	Las Cruces			Sep-11	Sep-10		% change
		Total Nonagricultural Employment		69,200	69,400		-0.3%
		Goods Producing		6,300	6,500		-3.1%
		Service Producing		62,900	62,900		0.0%
		Natural Res., Mining, and Constr.		3,700	3,700		0.0%
		Manufacturing		2,600	2,800		-7.1%
		Wholesale		1,300	1,200		8.3%
		Retail		7,100	6,900		2.9%
		Trans., Warehousing, and Utilities		1,700	1,700		0.0%
		Information		800	800		0.0%
		Financial Activity		2,400	2,300		4.3%
		Business Services		7,600	7,600		0.0%
		Education and Health Services		12,100	11,900		1.7%
		Leisure and Hospitality		7,200	7,100		1.4%
		Other Services		1,600	1,600		0.0%
		Government		21,100	21,800		-3.2%
Source: New Mexico Department of Workforce Solutions
Gross Receipts Tax Revenue before Medical Deduction
			Aug-11			Aug-10		% change
	Dona Ana County		20,174,646			19,146,609		5.4%
	New Mexico		294,081,341			267,154,847		10.1%
			2nd Quarter 2011			2nd Quarter 2010		% change
	Dona Ana		$59,598,251			$58,775,084		1.4%
	New Mexico		$853,484,640			$758,115,660		12.6%
Source: New Mexico Department of Taxation and Revenue

Real Estate
Las Cruces Building Permits (All Sources)			Jan-Sep 11			Jan-Sep 10		% change
	Permits		1,918			2,271		-15.5%
	Valuation		$115,464,818			$116,944,195		-1.3%
Source: City of Las Cruces

Housing Price Index			2nd Quarter 2011			2nd Quarter 2010		% change
	Las Cruces		169.56			178.33		-4.9%
	New Mexico		291.22			306.49		-5.0%
	United States		316.07			330.9		-4.5%
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

Energy Prices			Sep-11			Sep-10		% change
	Oil ( $/barrel )		85.61			75.31		13.7%
	Natural Gas (dollars per million BTU)		3.89			3.90		-0.3%
Source: Wall Street Journal						.

Prepared by Christopher A. Erickson, and James Libbin